Flat tax 2027 simulator: how much you would pay under the flat-rate regime at €100,000

In brief: the "flat tax 2027" the newspapers talk about is the hypothesis of raising the revenue threshold of the flat-rate regime from €85,000 to €100,000, keeping the substitute tax at 15% (5% for the first five years), but with VAT on invoices above €85,000, because the EU VAT exemption stops there. As of 23 October 2026 it is not law: the budget bill has not yet passed the Council of Ministers. This simulator calculates tax, INPS contributions and net income under the 2026 rules, under the 2027 hypothesis and under the ordinary regime, using only official parameters.

What is the "flat tax 2027"

"Flat tax" in Italy does not refer to a single thing. In the language of the 2027 budget, the expression covers at least three different proposals, and it is worth separating them before doing any calculation:

• Flat-rate regime at €100,000. This is the measure the press calls "flat tax for sole traders": raising the revenue and fee threshold of the flat-rate regime from 85,000 to 100,000 euros, with the substitute tax unchanged at 15%. It is what the simulator above compares with the rules in force.
• IRPEF at 33% up to €60,000. This is not a flat tax but an extension of the second bracket (currently 28,000–50,000 euros): it concerns employees, pensioners and self-employed workers under the ordinary regime. It is worth at most €1,000 a year per person; you will find it in the "bonus level" of the simulator.
• 5% substitute tax on contract pay rises. A preferential tax on pay increases from collective contract renewals, whose confirmation is under discussion. It has no rule defined well enough to be simulated without inventing details, so it is not on this page.

None of the three is law. The simulator keeps the parameters in force (tax year 2026, with a legal source) separate from the hypothetical ones, and labels them every time.

Where the law stands (23/10/2026)

The Draft Budgetary Plan sets the framework of the public accounts (net spending growth of 1.9% in 2027, deficit at 3.4% of GDP) but does not go into individual measures: the flat-rate regime is not mentioned in the text sent to Brussels. The figures in circulation, including the 2.1 billion the tax chapter would have available, come from press reconstructions, not from a legislative text.

The rules in force in 2026

These are the parameters the simulator uses in the "Today" card. Each row has its own source, consulted on 23/10/2026.

For the ordinary regime the simulator applies the IRPEF brackets of art. 11 of the TUIR (Consolidated Income Tax Act) in force from 2026 (23% up to 28,000 euros, 33% up to 50,000, 43% above, after the amendment to art. 1, para. 3 of Law 199/2025) and the self-employment deduction of art. 13, para. 5 TUIR. Regional and municipal surcharges are left out because they depend on where you live.

The hypotheses on the table for 2027

How it is calculated, step by step

The flat-rate regime does not ask for actual costs: it presumes them with the profitability coefficient. The chain is always the same, and the simulator shows it with the "Show the calculation steps" button:

• Flat-rate income = revenue collected × sector coefficient.
• Taxable base = flat-rate income − mandatory social contributions paid (these are the only deduction allowed).
• Substitute tax = taxable base × 15% (or 5% in the first five years). It replaces IRPEF, surcharges and IRAP.

Example 1, consultant at €60,000 in separate management. Coefficient 78%: flat-rate income €46,800. Contributions 26.07%: €12,200.76. Taxable base €34,599.24, tax at 15%: €5,189.89. Total to pay €17,390.65, i.e. 29.0% of revenue. Under the ordinary regime, with the same cost ratio (22%) and the art. 13 deduction, the net IRPEF would be €8,545.02 plus surcharges: €3,355.13 more in state tax alone.

Example 2, plumber at €90,000, craftsman with 35% reduction. Coefficient 86%: flat-rate income €77,400. Reduced INPS craftsmen contributions: €12,216.88. 15% tax on €65,183.12: €9,777.47. But €90,000 is above 85,000: under today's rules this is the last flat-rate year, then the ordinary regime, where, with the same presumed costs, the tax burden would rise to €36,195.26 (without the 35% reduction, which exists only in the flat-rate regime). Under the 100,000 euro hypothesis it would remain flat-rate: €14,200.91 difference for the year, before surcharges.

Two stated simplifications: the contributions deducted are those calculated on the same income (at steady state), whereas by law the contributions actually paid in the year are deducted; and under the ordinary regime costs default to the same share that the flat-rate regime presumes for that sector, until you enter your own.

The grey zone between 85,000 and 100,000 euros

This is the only band in which the 2027 hypothesis changes anything, which is why the simulator highlights it in orange. Under the rules in force, those who collect between 85,000 and 100,000 euros do not exit immediately: they remain in the flat-rate regime for the year in which they exceed the threshold and move to the ordinary regime from the following year (Revenue Agency circular 32/E of 5 December 2023, §2.1). Above 100,000 euros, instead, the regime ends at the very moment the threshold is exceeded, and VAT is due from the transaction that triggers the limit (para. 71).

With the €100,000 threshold, this band would remain flat-rate the following year too. The saving the simulator shows is the difference between the ordinary tax burden that current rules would lead you to and the flat-rate tax burden the hypothesis would leave you with: compare the two years "at steady state", not the transition year.

The VAT issue: why the threshold is 85,000

The €85,000 threshold is not an Italian figure. Art. 284 of Directive 2006/112/EC, as rewritten by Directive (EU) 2020/285 in force since 2025, sets €85,000 of turnover as the maximum that a Member State may exempt from VAT under the small business scheme. Italy was authorised to that level from 2023 (implementing decision (EU) 2023/664), and the 2023 budget law also aligned the flat-rate regime threshold to €85,000. The €100,000 figure in the Directive is instead the cap on turnover within the Union for the cross-border exemption: that is where the Italian rule of immediate exit comes from.

That is why the press leaks speak of 15% up to €100,000 "with VAT obligations": the state can decide on its own how much income tax to charge, not how far to exempt from VAT. For those who work with businesses, VAT on invoices is largely neutral (the client deducts it); for those who work with private individuals, it means raising prices by 22% or absorbing the cost. The simulator does not quantify this, because it depends on your price list.

If you also have an employment contract

A rule often overlooked: you cannot be a flat-rate taxpayer if in the previous year you received employment or pension income above €30,000 (art. 1, para. 57, letter d-ter), unless the employment has ended. For 2025 and 2026 the limit was raised to €35,000. Without an extension in the 2027 budget law, from 1 January 2027 it returns to €30,000: for those opening a VAT number alongside a salary between €30,000 and €35,000, this is a more concrete variable than the 100,000 threshold.

Flat-rate or ordinary: what the simulator cannot tell you

The comparison with the ordinary regime is useful for orientation, but three things remain outside any calculator, this one included:

• Your real costs. If you spend more than the coefficient presumes (a trader with 70% goods costs, a professional with an office and employees), the ordinary regime may cost less than it appears. Enable "I know my actual costs" and enter your percentage.
• The deductions the flat-rate regime makes you lose. Under the flat-rate regime the substitute tax allows no deductions for dependants, medical expenses, renovations or mortgage interest: those with many of them recover part of the advantage only under the ordinary regime. The simulator applies only the self-employment deduction.
• The pension. The 35% reduction of craftsmen's and shopkeepers' contributions also reduces, in proportion, what is credited to you (INPS itself points this out): you pay less today, and accrue less tomorrow.

For a real choice you need your accountant with your figures. The simulator is there to get you to them with the right questions.

How to use the simulator

• 1. Choose your activity group. Select the ATECO sector: it determines the profitability coefficient, i.e. the share of revenue that the flat-rate regime treats as income (from 40% to 86%).
• 2. Enter the annual revenue collected. Use the slider or the numeric field. The threshold meter shows the distance from the €85,000 in force and from the €100,000 of the 2027 hypothesis.
• 3. Indicate the social security scheme and details. Separate management, INPS for craftsmen or shopkeepers with an optional 35% reduction, professional fund with your rate; 5% rate for the first five years and actual costs for the comparison with the ordinary regime.
• 4. Read the verdict and the calculation steps. Three cards side by side: 2026 rules, 2027 hypothesis and ordinary regime, with tax, contributions, total and net income. Open the steps to see each formula, then copy the link to share the simulation.